Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
